Decision Making

Risk, Uncertainty and Ignorance in Investing and Business – Lessons from Richard Zeckhauser

A universal way to solve problems, from a mathematical genius

Benjamin Franklin on Decision Making: from a 1772 letter to Joseph Priestley

Seeing The Future From The Past

Behavioural biases

How to Reduce the Sources of Forecasting Error Michael J. Mauboussin

Understanding Biases And Their Impact On Our Perceptions

Fool Me Three Times And I Give Up Sep 20, 2018 by Morgan Housel

What actually occurred in the decade after the financial crisis – average market returns, tame volatility, pretty average economic growth, falling unemployment – is an outcome you would have have been laughed out of the room for suggesting in 2008, even if all of it was just predicting normalcy. We fell for an irony of thinking extreme tail events were probable, predictable, and visible. The literal opposite of a Black Swan.

Asset Management

BEHAVIOURAL ECONOMICS AND SUPERFORECASTING – A NEW ANGLE IN AM
Christian Hille - DWS, Global Head of Multi Asset & Solutions