Possible resolutions of UR war

• my summary - july 26, 2022

a) Ukranians want Russia to get off their backs. And if Russia gets falling apart, change of government,
any other internal problems, this is when Ukraine can live and prosper.

Outcome A (Ukraine wins (simplistically speaking)) - a full complete victory of Ukraine, including taking back the Crimea.
Challenge and benefit (my view) - Russian mentality of impire transforms like English and Germans did

b) Russians want the freeze of the conflict. 2nd Ukraine war to end similarly to 1st Ukranian war,
some limited victory and grabs for Russia and no change of a status quo!?
Russians hope that the West will give up on Ukraine due to West's inflation and other internal problems (Italy, fracture of USA society, etc)

Outcome B (Russia wins) - a frozen (limited) conflict for many (1-2 years or even 10 years) years
A challenge - Ukraine would be a very "unfortunate state" like Iraq, Afganistan, Nagornui Karabakh.

c) c1. China invades Taiwan. c2. Turkey picks a fight with Russia. c3. Unknown unknowns

articles

• Ukraine war risks destabilising the west
  A long conflict causing economic damage could fracture the unity of the democracies

  A long war will increase the political and economic pressure on western governments. Biden’s demand for Putin to go may have been undiplomatic, but he is surely right to suggest that normal relations between Russia and the west are inconceivable while Putin remains in power. Regime change in Russia may be necessary to avoid political turmoil in the west.

• https://drpippa.substack.com/p/the-bleeding-victor-part-one?s=r

• https://drpippa.substack.com/p/the-good-news-part-3-move-to-digital?s=r

• https://drpippa.substack.com/p/the-good-newspart-2-prevent-famine?s=r