# Trend-Following and Kelly

## [Thorp - Inefficient Markets](https://knowen-production.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/attachment/file/574/101229_thorp%2Binefficient%2Bmarkets.pdf)

[Markets are efficient if and only if P = NP](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1002.2284.pdf)
An illustration by way of **partitioning the excess returns to momentum strategies** based on data availability confirms this prediction⏎


## 2018 Sornette [Awareness of crash risk improves Kelly strategies in simulated financial time series](https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2004/2004.09368.pdf)



## public [Inelastic market hypothesis](https://knowen.org/nodes/28632) and TREND!

## https://www.researchgate.net/publication/309572830_Meta-CTA_Trading_Strategies_based_on_the_Kelly_Criterion


- phase digram - on the plane of price impact and leverage

**3 regimes - behavioural regions!! - stable and unstable regions of the price**



## [On the Profitability of Momentum Strategies and Optimal Leverage Rules](http://www.usbe.umu.se/ues/ues974.pdf)


- https://www.turtletrader.com/data/

# Parents

* Momentum Strategy
* Outstanding questions