Daniel Kahneman
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Kahneman
1974 - Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases Heuristics and Biases
1983 - Choices, Values, and Frames Daniel Kahneman, Amos Tversky
Daniel Kahneman, who won the Nobel Prize in Economics
based in part on his work on bias, wrote an article with some collaborators where he stated, “Where there is
judgment, there is noise―and usually more of it than you think.”
Noise: How to Overcome the High, Hidden Cost of Inconsistent Decision Making
Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman and psychologist Gary Klein debate the power and perils of intuition for senior executives.
Strategic decisions: When can you trust your gut?
and their article from 2009
premortem https://fs.blog/kahneman-better-decisions/
https://hbr.org/2016/10/noise