see also Leverage and Uncertainty
markets are short-term, and they function as a beauty contest
science is markets due to funding forces in the short-term, while science is self-correcting positive-convexity power in the long-term
technology is .... in the short-term, while not always the power for good in the long-term?
Decision making and gut instincts
UNDERSTANDING IS A POOR SUBSTITUTE FOR CONVEXITY (ANTIFRAGILITY) Nassim Nicholas Taleb [12.12.12]
THINGS LOVE UNCERTAINTY
skin in the game and ASSYMETRY
Convexity is easier to attain than knowledge
planning has a side effect to restrict optionality
Going after uncertainty but finding positive convexity!?
Types of convexity a) by choosing phase space and eliminating negatives b) due to knowledge c) appropriate leverage according to Kelly-Thorp d) what else?
Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman and psychologist Gary Klein debate the power and perils of intuition for senior executives.
Strategy versus Luck
And so, as a consequence, like, you just…you have to launch a new type product and have it succeed. You have to have a keen awareness of all of the different elements of the system. You have to have a willingness to engage in the entire system. You know, it’s a gigantic problem generally if you’re in denial about that, right, if you’re not willing to think in systems terms, right?