Polls and prediction markets
Are markets more accurate than polls? The surprising informational value of “just asking”
Jason Dana, Pavel Atanasov, Philip Tetlock, Barbara Mellers
Furthermore, the combination of approaches was significantly more accurate than prediction-market prices alone, indicating that self-reports contained information that the market did not efficiently aggregate. Combining measurement techniques across behavioral and social sciences may have greater benefits than previously thought
Groups of diverse problem solvers can outperform groups of high-ability problem solvers
- 1988 article How Uselul Is the Sentiment Index?