Polls and prediction markets

Are markets more accurate than polls? The surprising informational value of “just asking”

Jason Dana, Pavel Atanasov, Philip Tetlock, Barbara Mellers

Furthermore, the combination of approaches was significantly more accurate than prediction-market prices alone, indicating that self-reports contained information that the market did not efficiently aggregate. Combining measurement techniques across behavioral and social sciences may have greater benefits than previously thought

Groups of diverse problem solvers can outperform groups of high-ability problem solvers

• 1988 article How Uselul Is the Sentiment Index?

The Power of Social Media Polls: The Drill-Down on 3 Platforms + 5 General Best Practices